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O.Bender
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Posted: Wed Sep 9th, 2009 10:40 am |
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maxim wrote: Mister Ostap Bender, I personally hope none of the hawks in US politics look at the strategy described by mr. Muraviev, because they might actually use it.
Maxim, I'm amazed by your knowledge, as well I'm extremly happy you read it, it's really a masterpiece.
As for the strategy - I would not describe it here if I wasn't sure it is being applied already. My hope is that Chinese, Europeans etc will read it, because only global awareness of what the US will do in coming months (it will most probably start in this october) may save the rest of the World.
Besides, so far I posted only ideas of Muraviev. He's very good in working out details, but real superiority and priority is wih mr.Khazin, I will write about him today in that thread on Global economic collapse. So, Muraviev thinks the US can save itself by applying that strategy, Khazin says the US has no chance anyway.
Last edited on Wed Sep 9th, 2009 10:44 am by O.Bender
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maxim
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Posted: Wed Sep 9th, 2009 10:53 am |
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Thanks, I'm looking forward to reading mr. Kazin's analysis; in the meantime, here's a piece from one of my favorite authors, mr. Ivanjiiski:
http://perspectives.com/forums/view_topic.php?id=212082&forum_id=91
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O.Bender
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Posted: Wed Sep 9th, 2009 11:01 am |
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Saying masterpiece I referred to books about O.Bender, not economic theories (just in case). I hope you read them.
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maxim
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Posted: Wed Sep 9th, 2009 11:07 am |
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O.Bender wrote: Saying masterpiece I referred to books about O.Bender, not economic theories (just in case). I hope you read them.
Yes, I know what you meant. I've seen "12 стульев" and "Золотой телёнок", I haven't read the books yet.
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O.Bender
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Posted: Wed Sep 9th, 2009 12:18 pm |
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Interesting article you gave, but it strangely look like an article of Khazin. It may happen that a journalist has come to the same conclusions as an economist, but if there're some figures wich amazingly match what Khazin says, one may suppose there's a reason.
Khazin is rather a famous person now in Russia, he writes many articles, every week he has an hour on one of freely speaking radio stations of Russia - Echo Moskvy... His articles might have been read in Bulgaria too.
Last edited on Wed Sep 9th, 2009 12:21 pm by O.Bender
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O.Bender
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Posted: Wed Sep 9th, 2009 12:38 pm |
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WOW how intersting it is. My topic "The future global economic collapse" was closed without giving any reasons.
And while I'm going to talk to moderators about it, here I put a link to an article in Russian, but there are very interesting graphs in English there.
http://neocon.su/reviews/short/standart/15_2.html
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The Engine
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Posted: Wed Sep 9th, 2009 01:11 pm |
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O.Bender wrote: Interesting article you gave, but it strangely look like an article of Khazin. It may happen that a journalist has come to the same conclusions as an economist, but if there're some figures wich amazingly match what Khazin says, one may suppose there's a reason.
Khazin is rather a famous person now in Russia, he writes many articles, every week he has an hour on one of freely speaking radio stations of Russia - Echo Moskvy... His articles might have been read in Bulgaria too.
Is he the famous Russian economist, who predicts that the USA will break up into seven seperate nations?
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O.Bender
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Posted: Wed Sep 9th, 2009 01:28 pm |
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The Engine wrote: O.Bender wrote: Interesting article you gave, but it strangely look like an article of Khazin. It may happen that a journalist has come to the same conclusions as an economist, but if there're some figures wich amazingly match what Khazin says, one may suppose there's a reason.
Khazin is rather a famous person now in Russia, he writes many articles, every week he has an hour on one of freely speaking radio stations of Russia - Echo Moskvy... His articles might have been read in Bulgaria too.
Is he the famous Russian economist, who predicts that the USA will break up into seven seperate nations? No, he doesn't go farer than prediction that level of life of Americans in the end of the crisis will drop to 50% of what is it now with all consequances, but doesn't give details what these consequances might be.
You maight be referring to Panarin, a peculiar professor of Russian diplomatic Academy, who has been predicting for 10 years or more that the US will break up into several states. He even draw borders. Actually, I agree to some extent, but I think ethnically the US is not ready yet for such a brakeup. If current crisis have happenned in 30 years - definitely it would be reasonable to agree with Panarin. But now - I doubt. Maybe just Hyspanic majority states...
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O.Bender
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Posted: Wed Sep 9th, 2009 01:50 pm |
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O.Bender wrote: The Engine wrote: O.Bender wrote: Interesting article you gave, but it strangely look like an article of Khazin. It may happen that a journalist has come to the same conclusions as an economist, but if there're some figures wich amazingly match what Khazin says, one may suppose there's a reason.
Khazin is rather a famous person now in Russia, he writes many articles, every week he has an hour on one of freely speaking radio stations of Russia - Echo Moskvy... His articles might have been read in Bulgaria too.
Is he the famous Russian economist, who predicts that the USA will break up into seven seperate nations? No, he doesn't go farer than prediction that level of life of Americans in the end of the crisis will drop to 50% of what is it now with all consequances, but doesn't give details what these consequances might be.
You maight be referring to Panarin, a peculiar professor of Russian diplomatic Academy, who has been predicting for 10 years or more that the US will break up into several states. He even draw borders. Actually, I agree to some extent, but I think ethnically the US is not ready yet for such a brakeup. If current crisis have happenned in 30 years - definitely it would be reasonable to agree with Panarin. But now - I doubt. Maybe just Hyspanic majority states...
Here's the map
   
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George Aligator
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Posted: Wed Sep 9th, 2009 03:28 pm |
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O.Bender wrote: O.Bender wrote: The Engine wrote: O.Bender wrote: Interesting article you gave, but it strangely look like an article of Khazin. It may happen that a journalist has come to the same conclusions as an economist, but if there're some figures wich amazingly match what Khazin says, one may suppose there's a reason.
Khazin is rather a famous person now in Russia, he writes many articles, every week he has an hour on one of freely speaking radio stations of Russia - Echo Moskvy... His articles might have been read in Bulgaria too.
Is he the famous Russian economist, who predicts that the USA will break up into seven seperate nations? No, he doesn't go farer than prediction that level of life of Americans in the end of the crisis will drop to 50% of what is it now with all consequances, but doesn't give details what these consequances might be.
You maight be referring to Panarin, a peculiar professor of Russian diplomatic Academy, who has been predicting for 10 years or more that the US will break up into several states. He even draw borders. Actually, I agree to some extent, but I think ethnically the US is not ready yet for such a brakeup. If current crisis have happenned in 30 years - definitely it would be reasonable to agree with Panarin. But now - I doubt. Maybe just Hyspanic majority states...
Here's the map
These post-Soviet virtuosi need to get out more. The Palmetto State ain't gonna be joining the EU any time soon. If you think the folks in SC would rather throw in with the folks in RI than the folks in GA, you need to come over for a visit.
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O.Bender
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Posted: Wed Sep 9th, 2009 03:52 pm |
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George, you should not adress me if you discuss with Panarin. As I said he's a peculiar, even funny person, I've seen him once. As for the map - its baseless, divisions look artificial even for me, not American, Russia will more probably loose Siberia to Chinese than accwire Alaska etc. ect.
I think that ethnic tensions can split America, especially during major economic crisis, but not yet - except several states there are no ethnically consolidated minorities who can challenge federal power. As well number of these minorities is still not enough to challenge white majority in scale, proposed by Panarin.
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WA Mozart
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Posted: Wed Sep 9th, 2009 07:39 pm |
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Hughmac wrote: WA Mozart wrote: Come now, Mr WAM, the Fed has been undermining the dollar for decades, regardless of which party has their man in the Whitehouse. The only reason that the dollar hasn't burst like an over-ripe zit before is because of the petro-dollar.
I am not an economist, but I do know that you can't keep writing cheques on an account without sufficient funds to honour them, which is precisely what the Fed has been doing, before the manager calls you into for an appointment...
Cheers
Hughmac
Ah, ....no.
What you're referring to above is the purchase of US Treasury bonds by the Chinese. In other words, they, the Chinese, are financing our debt. The problem here is that the Chinese have chosen to purchase these bonds on the open market rather than using their accumulated dollars to buy US goods and services. Why? Were they, the Chinese, to do the latter, the value of the Yuan would increase in value, ...a big no - no. They are desperate to keep the value of the Yuan low in order to remain competitive with other low cost economies in Asia, such as Indonesia or Vietnam. It's their choice to buy US Treasury bills instead...
Mozart
I don't know why I get into these financial discussions because I am completely out of my depth over economics.
Having said that, I was refering (in my first paragraph) to the Fed's tendency to create dollars out of nowhere; i.e., a dollar bill now has absolutely nothing behind it, other than faith, hence it being a fiat currency, I suppose. I watched a couple of videos on the Fed and was left gobsmacked!
Cheers
Hughmac
...a few thoughts here.
You're probably referring to the Nixon administration's decision to remove the 'gold backing' from the US dollar. That's a long, arduous discussion in economics. Most like what he did, some don't. I'm with the 'most' category.
What is interesting is the massive inflation of the US dollar headed our way. There is a term in economics which you will be hearing more and more of. It's called monetizing the debt. It means that US Federal Reserve, which is an independent government agency from the federal government, can create money by buying back US Treasury Bills. When you do that, you add more dollars to the US economy, thus increasing the US money supply, resulting in .....inflation. It's gonna be big; it's gonna be massive.
Now, the Chinese are sitting over there, watching what the Fed is doing. The Chinese are stuck with about 1 trillion in US dollars which are about to drop in value. Why? The Fed's about to begin monetizing the debt. As inflation goes up, the value of their dollars goes,....kerplunk. So, what do they, the poor Chinese, do? They buy commodities! ..oil futures, wood, minerals, sugar, ...you name it. Why? When debt is monetized, commodity prices go,...up!
If you want a crash course on how real world economics work read this tongue-in-cheek letter published in today's Wall Street Journal. It's good, very good.
Why is gold now above 1,000 bucks an ounce? ...or oil at 71 bucks a barrel?
Dear Chairman Bernanke
The Chinese send their congratulations
Dear Esteemed Chairman and Savior of the World Economy:
On behalf of your many Chinese friends and all of the Chinese people, we wish to congratulate you on your recent reappointment as Chairman of the American Federal Reserve. We could not be more pleased to know that the man who saved the value of our Fannie Mae mortgage-backed securities last year will be the Great Monetary Helmsman for another four years.
We also note with satisfaction, and admiration, your many recent assurances, via the Wall Street Journal and various eloquent speeches, that you and the Fed have no intention of permitting a revival of dollar inflation. This is a source of great reassurance to the Chinese people, not to mention the bureaucracy in Beijing that made the decision to invest $1 trillion or more in dollar-denominated securities.
As you can imagine, this has become a source of some political controversy inside the government of the People's Republic, as we have also noted it has become in the irresponsible American financial press. Fortunately, we don't have the latter problem. But please know that we share your disdain for any voices in the unpatriotic media who would question your resolve to maintain the value of the world's reserve currency.
At the same time, and with the deepest respect, we also note with concern your decision this year to purchase U.S. Treasurys, which directly monetizes the debt built up by irresponsible democratic politicians. (This is one reason we Chinese are so skeptical of democracy; it always leads to a welfare state!) We must admit that that Treasury decision caught us by surprise, considering the many lectures over the years from our American friends about the importance of an independent central bank. Then again, the last year has seen America do many things that we once thought a capitalist economy would never do, wouldn't you agree?
With this in mind, we have decided to hedge our dollar bets and buy gold, oil and other commodities which will rise in value if the dollar falls. You may have therefore noticed that oil has risen above $71 a barrel, despite slack global demand, and in particular that gold has climbed this week above $1,000 an ounce.
Perhaps you have seen reports that we Chinese are doubling our reserves of gold and buying other related metals. Please do not be alarmed. This is the normal process of diversification that any trillion-dollar creditor would take, just in case the Federal Reserve's definition of an "extended period" for monetary easing turns out to be even more extended than we already assume it will be. We will only be too happy to cease this flight from dollar assets when we observe your determination to tighten money; surely this must be why President Obama selected you over the distinguished White House economic adviser, Lawrence Summers.
Once again, on behalf of all of the Chinese people, our heartiest congratulations.
Sincerely,
Ministry of Finance
Beijing
Mozart
Last edited on Wed Sep 9th, 2009 07:44 pm by WA Mozart
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O.Bender
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Posted: Wed Sep 9th, 2009 08:03 pm |
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Mozart, just a remark, Fed has already started openly buying treasury bills, if I'm not mistaken at least 300 bln. And, what is more essential, it did so secretly for years - if you look at who was buying TB, very significant share is of various offshores, which are used be the Fed for this purpose.
And, what you pointed on correctly, monetizing the debt will really be the tool to start hyperinflation, but it will be done in much more a bigger scale. Not only TB will be bought by the Fed, but huge amounts of dollars will be granted (of course as credits) to banks-founders of the Fed (let's not forget that Fed is a private company founded by a bunch of banks who really rule the World). So, these dollars will be used to buy everything, all falling companies (via buying their debts), houses, everything - most of all debts will be bought, most of property in the US and much of the World will be accumulated in hands of these banks. Having so much newly printed money poured in the market means immediate start of hyperinflation, which will reduce these banks' debt the the Fed to insignificant amount. But the property will be theirs.
The end.
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WA Mozart
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Posted: Wed Sep 9th, 2009 10:38 pm |
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maxim wrote: WA Mozart wrote: Most of those economic charts you posted are not reflective of whether or not an economy is booming.
And a one half of one factor - the slight decrease in budget deficits is?
Yup, the accumulated national debt does go up over time. Yup. But so does the national GDP.
Which by the way, also isn't a great factor, since most of US GDP is consumption, which is based on imports and debts. While GDP growth, living standards, stock prices and budgets can be artificially stimulated over a long time, debts and trade deficits can't, which is why I'd rather look at how sharp the needle is, than how big the balloon has become.
The US trade deficit has also been slowly increasing. Yup. And this means what? More US dollars are flowing out of the country than flowing in.
That's the first time I've heard that particular "silver lining to a hurricane" argument. The trade deficit means simply that the US economy sells less than it buys, often with money it doesn't have. If more dollars are being printed, borrowed or imagined into existence, either at the expense of debt and future servicing costs, or inflation, does it matter if they're a bit more popular for a while? Simply put, just because America demands more and more dollars to give to someone else, it doesn't mean the dollar will benefit from that higher demand, much less that the economy is booming.
It's not hard to see that you keep making nearsighted and overly optimistic predictions related to the future of Capitalism, as Capitalists do, while other Capitalists listen and applaud until reality smacks them in the face. When that happens, it's time to blame someone else.
Ah, have you actually been reading this thread? You are utterly confused here.
One day, you should take a nice course on economics. I would highly recommend that you read some of the thoughts by one noted Austrian, Frederich Augustus von Hayek. Along with other notables such as Milton Friedman, he is one of the most important economists of the 20th century. His book, Road to Serfdom, should be mandatory in every school room. Only having read/studied such economists, should one be able to comment on the worthiness of capitalism.
Mozart
Last edited on Wed Sep 9th, 2009 10:41 pm by WA Mozart
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O.Bender
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Posted: Wed Sep 9th, 2009 10:58 pm |
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Mozart, there simply cannot be more sober and profound answer than of maxim which you (amazingly to me) consider as his confusion.
To what has been said to him I'd just add that US was very instrumental in persuading the World they have a good and solid economy, as well as any GDP growth at all.
For example, The US statistics include in the GDP cost of imaginary rent of the house owners which they would pay to themselves in case if they were not owners. I don't remember the exact term for this. Should I explain how it affect GDP picture? No other country in the World does it.
As well all researches (US based mostly) constantly say that the US economy is very effective compared to others, somwhere in top 3 or 5. But don't forget that most of US economy now is financial sector, i.e. a bubble. If a bank manager bought a stock and sold it in a week for 105% of its previous price it means that efficiency of him is 20 % at least.
US economy is a big bubble, carefully camouflaged with lie to look solid.
Last edited on Wed Sep 9th, 2009 11:03 pm by O.Bender
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O.Bender
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Posted: Thu Sep 10th, 2009 12:06 am |
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Here is the term
-
Owner-occupied nonfarm dwellings --space rent
"...the statistics assumes that if an owner lives in his own house, he is paying himself a rent equal to the rent such a house can command if rented out in the open market. """
And it's only one example. American real GDP is about 90% of that officially announced.
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robertr2000
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Posted: Thu Sep 10th, 2009 03:40 am |
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O.Bender wrote: Mozart, just a remark, Fed has already started openly buying treasury bills, if I'm not mistaken at least 300 bln. And, what is more essential, it did so secretly for years - if you look at who was buying TB, very significant share is of various offshores, which are used be the Fed for this purpose.
And, what you pointed on correctly, monetizing the debt will really be the tool to start hyperinflation, but it will be done in much more a bigger scale. Not only TB will be bought by the Fed, but huge amounts of dollars will be granted (of course as credits) to banks-founders of the Fed (let's not forget that Fed is a private company founded by a bunch of banks who really rule the World). So, these dollars will be used to buy everything, all falling companies (via buying their debts), houses, everything - most of all debts will be bought, most of property in the US and much of the World will be accumulated in hands of these banks. Having so much newly printed money poured in the market means immediate start of hyperinflation, which will reduce these banks' debt the the Fed to insignificant amount. But the property will be theirs.
The end.
Hello NWO.
Not that "I" believe any of it ![[usa]](/forums/themes/default/usa.gif) 
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O.Bender
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Posted: Thu Sep 10th, 2009 07:33 am |
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robertr2000 wrote: O.Bender wrote: Mozart, just a remark, Fed has already started openly buying treasury bills, if I'm not mistaken at least 300 bln. And, what is more essential, it did so secretly for years - if you look at who was buying TB, very significant share is of various offshores, which are used be the Fed for this purpose.
And, what you pointed on correctly, monetizing the debt will really be the tool to start hyperinflation, but it will be done in much more a bigger scale. Not only TB will be bought by the Fed, but huge amounts of dollars will be granted (of course as credits) to banks-founders of the Fed (let's not forget that Fed is a private company founded by a bunch of banks who really rule the World). So, these dollars will be used to buy everything, all falling companies (via buying their debts), houses, everything - most of all debts will be bought, most of property in the US and much of the World will be accumulated in hands of these banks. Having so much newly printed money poured in the market means immediate start of hyperinflation, which will reduce these banks' debt the the Fed to insignificant amount. But the property will be theirs.
The end.
Hello NWO.
Not that "I" believe any of it
I don't understand what specifically you don't believe. It's just facts, you can check by yourself - I can't give you the link to the US statistics, but if you find an official sourse just look at the line
Owner-occupied nonfarm dwellings --space rent
Explanation of it in my last post I took from an american sourse, you can search by yoursef also.
A couple of years ago only this imaginary part of American GDP was accounting for about 8% of GDP, I don't think much has changed.
As well there are other tricks, for example Hedonist price index etc.
US is moking the World to attract money - and it's the only way this state can live.
Last edited on Thu Sep 10th, 2009 07:34 am by O.Bender
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maxim
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Posted: Thu Sep 10th, 2009 10:27 am |
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WA Mozart wrote: One day, you should take a nice course on economics. I would highly recommend that you read some of the thoughts by one noted Austrian, Frederich Augustus von Hayek. Along with other notables such as Milton Friedman, he is one of the most important economists of the 20th century. His book, Road to Serfdom, should be mandatory in every school room. Only having read/studied such economists, should one be able to comment on the worthiness of capitalism.
Mozart
Nice generic answer there, Mozart. Do you have it ready to copy/paste somewhere when you don't have arguments of your own? For the record, I first became familiar with Friedman and von Hayek's works in University where they were actually part of my education, and I took great time and pleasure in writing less than favorable analyses on these two particular authors' less than brilliant theories. Add another religo-capitalist pseudo-authority, Adam Smith to the mix, and you have the trifecta of my favorite Capitalist punching bags.
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The Engine
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Posted: Thu Sep 10th, 2009 12:02 pm |
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robertr2000 wrote: O.Bender wrote: Mozart, just a remark, Fed has already started openly buying treasury bills, if I'm not mistaken at least 300 bln. And, what is more essential, it did so secretly for years - if you look at who was buying TB, very significant share is of various offshores, which are used be the Fed for this purpose.
And, what you pointed on correctly, monetizing the debt will really be the tool to start hyperinflation, but it will be done in much more a bigger scale. Not only TB will be bought by the Fed, but huge amounts of dollars will be granted (of course as credits) to banks-founders of the Fed (let's not forget that Fed is a private company founded by a bunch of banks who really rule the World). So, these dollars will be used to buy everything, all falling companies (via buying their debts), houses, everything - most of all debts will be bought, most of property in the US and much of the World will be accumulated in hands of these banks. Having so much newly printed money poured in the market means immediate start of hyperinflation, which will reduce these banks' debt the the Fed to insignificant amount. But the property will be theirs.
The end.
Hello NWO.
Not that "I" believe any of it
And for anyone who is not familiar with the term, whenever a nation purchases its own debt, it is called monetizing the debt and it's not a good thing. It has never worked before and seems to always lead to hyperinflation.
Does anyone know a single historical example where it has actually worked?
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